UFC Live: Hardy vs. Lytle Preview

Armando again doing the workload this week with a great preview of Sunday night’s card on Versus. And I’m excited because I should be able to see this one. He writes up the entire card, but we’re just picking six of those fights. Also, he was very kind to list the times in Pacific, so I remember when to tune in this time and don’t get to the bar to watch the fight 30 minutes after the end of the main event…

Preliminary Card (Facebook.com, 5:45 p.m. ET / 2:45 p.m. PT)
Edwin Figueroa (-300) vs. Jason Reinhardt (+288) – Y’all know the First Rule of Armondo’s Picks: go with who ya know.  I’ve seen Figueroa (albeit in a losing battle), so that’s who I’m rolling with.  (-300) is a bit stiff though, considering Reinhardt has nearly 3x the experience.
Jimy Hettes (-350) vs. Alex Caceres (+313) – If I wasn’t doing the VRotW recently, Jimy Hettes would be on the short list for a dickride.  He’s undefeated, with a total fight time of 25:34.. but he only has 8 fights under his belt, kids, which means an average of about 3:05 per fight.  All subs, from all different angles (RNC, heel hook, armbar, guillotine and triangle).  PLUS he’s well-versed in Judo, so you know he got takedowns and shit on lock.  No-brainer.  Stud in the making.  Look for him to be FB’ing pics of him and his belt in 2012-2013.
Cole Miller (-387) vs. T.J. O’Brien (+335) – Y’all also know the Second Rule of Armondo’s Picks: don’t fucks with anyone without a Wikipedia entry, so T.J. is out.  Although considering Cole’s beef with Donald Cerrone, this very well may be a trap fight, but I’m hoping not.
Danny Castillo (-118) vs. Jacob Volkmann (+107) – Castillo is one of those guys that can’t quite break into the big time, but is close.  His only losses came to some solid competition (Cerrone, Showtime and Shane Roller).  Volkmann might be on a 3-fight win streak, but two of those were splits that could have easily gone the other way.  I’m feeling “Last Call” Castillo here.
Karlos Vemola (-210) vs. Ronny Markes (+201) – 11-1 at 23 yrs. old, with a big win against Paulo Filho (I know, he’s old, but he’s still good) under his belt already?  Vemola’s no slouch, but Markes will make his first fighting foray into the States a good one.
Kyle Noke (-144) vs. Ed Herman (+145) – Hard not to like Noke here, against an overrated and undertalented Ed Herman.
Joseph Benavidez (-231) vs. Eddie Wineland (+225) – If there’s anyone I inexplicably want to lose every fight, it’s ugly-ass, stank-ass, ol’-jive-turkey-ass Joseph Benavidez.  Plus Wineland really did look great in his loss to Faber – not good enough to beat Faber, but certainly good enough to beat the dog piss out of Benavidez.
C.B. Dollaway (-250) vs. Jared Hamman (+222) – Likewise, if there’s anyone I inexplicably want to win every fight, it’s C.B.  Partly because he’s such a phenomenal wrestler, partly because he reps Mt. Gilead, partly because he has a win via Peruvian necktie, and partly because he refers to himself in the third person.
Main Card (Versus, 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
Amir Sadollah (-310) vs. Duane Ludwig (+273) – Amir needs some consistency to really make an impact at 170.  Beating “Bang” would make for 3 in a row, and should open him up to a slight bump in competition.
Charles Oliveira (-130) vs. Donald Cerrone (+130) – Finally, y’all know the Third Rule of Armondo’s Picks: ALWAYS pick a previous DRotW or VRotW fighter.  I don’t necessarily agree with “Do Bronx” being a favorite, but I do think that he’s got what it takes to weather Cerrone’s storms and sub him.
Jim Miller (-145) vs. Ben Henderson (+145) – Fight of the Year candidate?  Yep.  Although no matter how good Ben Henderson is – and he is REALLY good – I don’t think ANYONE at 155 can beat Jim Miller right now.  Not Frankie, not Maynard, not Clay or Guillard, and definitely not Bendo.
Chris Lytle (-107) vs. Dan Hardy (even) – Hardy’s gonna be fighting like a guy who’s in danger of losing his job, because… well, he is.  I can’t think of anyone since Travis Lutter that was cut from the UFC after a main event fight, but Hardy very well may be the next.  Hardy’s not great on the ground, where Lytle reigns supreme (21 submission victories).  Furthermore, Hardy’s striking is excellent, but Chris Lytle isn’t exactly human either – if you take a doctor stoppage and a cut out of the mix, Lytle has NEVER been stopped in 53 MMA fights, and another 15 boxing matches for good measure.  Cliffs Notes: Hardy ain’t KO’ing Lytle; Hardy’s ground game ain’t good enough to defend against the 2nd-degree BJJ black belt of Lytle; and Hardy has no chance to beat Lytle.

That’s how Armando sees it happening and more often than not, he’s been right about these things (I plan on whooping his ass once football season starts up again…), but this is how the rest of us are picking:

Fight Armando Casey TJ
Benavidez vs. Wineland Wineland Benavidez Benavidez
Dollaway vs. Hamman Dollaway Dollaway Dollaway
Ludwig vs. Sadollah Sadollah Sadollah Sadollah
Cerrone vs. Oliveria Oliveria Oliveria Cerrone
Henderson vs. Miller Miller Miller Miller
Hardy vs. Lytle Lytle Hardy Lytle

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