Draftonomics: Andrew Luck Edition

Well if I had gotten on this a few days ago, it may have had more of an impact. With yesterday’s announcement that the Colts have told Andrew Luck that they will draft him first overall next Thursday, what we’ve known since February has been confirmed. Also, all the drama has been taken taken out of the first half hour of next Thursday’s first round, as it’s also pretty much guaranteed that the Redskins will tak Robert Griffin the 3rd with the 2nd pick. So why return to the blog to refute Armando? Well, the question was who is the better talent and I think there’s a few points that he neglected to mention when he made the case for RGIII.

He made the point of looking at the numbers in comparing the two quarterbacks and he was correct that Griffin’s 2011 numbers were better in every major category. In fact, let’s take a look at those side-by-side.

2011 Total Passing Yards Avg. YPP Comp % TDs Rating INTs
Griffin III 4293 10.68 72.4 37 189.5 6
Luck 3517 8.7 71.3 37 169.7 10

Pretty convincing and as Armando pointed out, RGIII did it with a team that rushed more than Stanford did. However, determining potential NFL talent doesn’t hinge on just one season. If that were the case, Freddie Barnes would be an All-Pro receiver. (Look him up. Yes, another shoutout to a Falcon alum.) So what were their career numbers? Well, a lot closer than one Mr. V would have you believe.

Career Total Passing Yards Avg. YPP Comp % TDs Rating INTs
Griffin III (4 seasons) 10366 8.7 67.1 78 158.9 17
Luck (3 seasons) 9430 8.9 67.0 82 162.8 22

The caveat here is that Griffin tore his ACL 3 games into the 2009 season, and only played in 11 of 12 games his freshman season, so they are dealing with about the same number of games played. Things look a little more even. Granted, these comparisons do not take into account rushing yards, in which RG3 is far and away the better of the two. But what we’re looking at here is the better NFL quarterback prospect by the numbers and consistency counts.

Something else to consider, Luck spent his first two years in Jim Harbaugh’s pro-style offense. He’s going to a situation where there is a good chance that he’ll be the opening day starter for the Colts and he’s better suited to take over on day one. Griffin will need some time to adjust to the pro game. It took Michael Vick a season or two to adapt to the NFL and the same will happen to RG3. But you don’t have to take my word for it. Plenty of far more learned football minds have pointed to Luck as one of the best NFL prospects they’ve ever seen, like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay (http://espn.go.com/nfl/feature/video/_/id/7303334/ultimate-scouting-report), . So now the only question that remains in the top 5 is what will the Cleveland Browns do, but that’s a topic for another post.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>